Manifold promises to convert Mana (M$) to charitable donations at a fixed rate, working similarly to a stablecoin like Tether or TerraUSD.
This question resolves YES if I believe it is over 80% likely that the total value of the circulating supply of Mana exceeds (or has exceeded) the liquid assets held by Manifold as a company at any point before closing. Otherwise, it will resolve NO. I define the circulating supply as the sum of all Mana held by users, including the market value of all bets. Due to the subjective nature of this market, I will not bet here myself.
FYI: Manifold currently reports having about $2M (https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Finances-0f9a14a16afe4375b67e21471ce456b0), enough to give about half of Destiny.gg’s YouTube subscribers a starting balance of M$1,000.
1,000
3.00Per https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1187248015988244634/1232351727240609962 Manifold has $1.5 million in the bank. Opposite that are Ṁ119,196,036 (https://manifold.markets/stats) in circulation plus Ṁ69,830,000 in loans (https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Announcement-A-sustainable-mana-economy-08b86e8937554cc7a4608371f66ecb10). Resolves YES, though the devaluation will presumably fix it in a week
This is almost certainly already true assuming there's as much mana invested as uninvested
Manifold still has ~$2M this month, and there's now ~$1M USD in uninvested balances alone
@PatMyron Let me also clarify two things:
1) This market is indeed a joke but will resolve as per the description
2) I will not subtract the loans people have from the circulating supply of mana as defined by the question. After all, these loans are unsecured.
I know this is a joke market, but just to be crystal clear for everyone: Mana (M$) is play-money, not a stablecoin. Manifold has zero legal obligations to anyone holding M$, and our charity program can be suspended by us at any time for any reason. (The better way to think about M$ is that they are backed by the ability to create and bet on markets on Manifold.)