Will Manifold cease allowing mana withdrawals for any length of time before 2028?

Mana•Manifold for Charity

Ṁ1.3K

Ṁ350

resolved Mar 16

Resolved

N/A

ALL

Does not count if Manifold's payment processor stops supporting them or there is otherwise some clear external reason why Manifold is unable to send mana to charity. It must be a descision Manifold made themselves.

For a similar market with a shorter timeframe (and slightly different criteria), see /IsaacKing/will-manifold-permanently-cease-all

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Alright, here's a fixed version.

This market will resolve N/A in a day or two unless someone provides a compelling counterargument. Close date updated.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing So now this market shouldn't resolve N/A, right? It should be re-opened?

@ScottLawrence Why?

The N/A resolution was because my criteria were poor.

I guess if people want I could just fix the criteria to be clearer and reopen?

predicted NO

@IsaacKing although the criteria aren't perfect, I don't think we ran into that situation. Withdrawals were never stopped. They still could be in the future. Might as well clarify what happens if manifold is forced to stop, and reopen.

predicted YES

@ScottLawrence The problem is people already traded on the ambiguous situation (myself included). I would agree with Isaac that it's better to N/A and create a new market.

predicted NO

@jack was the description modified? With the current description I'm having trouble seeing what the ambiguity was.

predicted YES

@ScottLawrence The ambiguity is, if Manifold stops allowing mana withdrawals because of payment processor issues, is that a NO or a N/A.

Two possible readings of the question:

Will Manifold stop mana withdrawals conditional on no payment processor or other external reason forcing a stop? -> would yield N/A in that situation
Will Manifold stop mana withdrawals for a non-external reason -> would yield NO in that situation

predicted YES

There's also the problem that the title becomes highly confusing in that situation.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Confused about this market. The most recent announcement indicates that withdrawals are being stopped due to a direct demand from the payment processor. That shouldn't be a YES resolution, right?

@ScottLawrence Hmm, good question. My resolution criteria don't cover this situation very clearly at all.

I think the spirit of the market is about Manifold making this choice as a profit decision, which is why I wanted to omit things outside their control.

But under that interpretation, since donations have been turned off due to forces outside their control, Manifold could never do it themselves, meaning this should resolve NO. (Unless something changes in the next 5 years, which seems likely.)

I'm thinking I should probably resolve this N/A. Anyone else have thoughts?

predicted NO

@IsaacKing To be clear, I don't think this market can possibly resolve NO early. I think your options are resolve N/A, wait to see if something changes (unlikely but not at the 1% level), or resolve YES (opposed).

predicted YES

Yeah this market seems like it should resolve N/A immediately when Manifold is forced to stop charitable donations by Stripe.

https://help.manifold.markets/manifold-charitable-donation-program

Made a shorter version of this market, since that's probably what most of us care about.

How will this resolve if manifold ceases allowing mana withdrawals for some users?

@Yev If it's just a few users as a form of moderation, doesn't count. If it's almost all users, and only a select few get to keep withdrawing, that does count.

Surprised this is so high. Is there really that little trust in Manifold's ability to remain solvent? I can't think of a reason they'd turn off donations other than being unable to afford it.

@IsaacKing Suppose, for example, someone exploits a bug to print billions of mana and distributes it to all traders. Then Manifold might want to suspend donations temporarily while they clean up the mess.

@Yev Ah, true.

https://manifold.markets/1941159478/manifold-liquidity-shortage-by-2026#fqRo2PVr8B3ZFHFwEAzB

Just to be crystal clear for everyone: Mana (M$) is play-money, not a stablecoin. Manifold has zero legal obligations to anyone holding M$, and our charity program can be suspended by us at any time for any reason. (The better way to think about M$ is that they are backed by the ability to create and bet on markets on Manifold.)