Will Gurkenglas's attempt to start a bank run be successful? | Manifold

Will Gurkenglas's attempt to start a bank run be successful?

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resolved Mar 6

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YES

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@Gurkenglas tried to start a bank run on https://manifold.markets/Honourary/the-replacement-administrator-for-a Resolves YES if both of the following are true - The linked market's NO pool drops below $25 at some point within 12 hours of this market closing. - Gurkenglas and I agree that it was a "real" bank run (and not e.g. just someone trying to make this market resolve YES). If we disagree about whether it was a "real" bank run, we'll discuss it until we agree. There's no way this can fail, right?... :D

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NO is empty.

I did advise against having separate YES and NO pools! Not with this in mind, just because it made the math wacky, and that tends to come back to bite you.

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