Manifold promises to convert Mana (M$) to charitable donations at a fixed rate, working similarly to a stablecoin like Tether or TerraUSD.

This question resolves YES if I believe it is over 80% likely that the total value of the circulating supply of Mana exceeds (or has exceeded) the liquid assets held by Manifold as a company at any point before closing. Otherwise, it will resolve NO. I define the circulating supply as the sum of all Mana held by users, including the market value of all bets. Due to the subjective nature of this market, I will not bet here myself.

FYI: Manifold currently reports having about $2M (

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Finances-0f9a14a16afe4375b67e21471ce456b0

’s YouTube subscribers a starting balance of M$1,000.