
Manifold just implimented the ability for trustworthyish users to resolve other people's markets, with pretty much no guardrails. I could go and incorrectly resolve the largest market on Manifold right now. Seems potentially bad.
If one of my markets other than this one gets resolved by someone else in a manner I consider incorrect or otherwise disruptive, this market resolves to YES. Otherwise it resolves to NO at the end of the year.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ3,996 | |
2 | Ṁ1,315 | |
3 | Ṁ898 | |
4 | Ṁ200 | |
5 | Ṁ147 |
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@Shump @IsaacKing I'm not following. Is "Going to take a refueling break rn and a short nap" and then radio silence and then resuming not sufficient evidence of "Will FUH take a nap in between start and finish? (If they try to sleep but fail, that still counts.)"? This seems to be on the conservative end of market resolutions, though I see how it could be even more conservative: You could wait until post-nap confirmation that they really did try, wait until a third party confirms they saw him trying to nap, wait until a notary or trusted public official witnesses the nap attempt, etc.
@Jacy My intention was to wait for confirmation; people change their minds. It turned out to be correct, so no big deal, but I had made an intentional choice not to resolve the answer based on that message from FUH in the discord, so it qualifies for this market.
@Shelvacu If they misclicked and fixed their error themselves, not necessarily. If I have to be the one to fix it, that's definitely disruptive.
@LarsDoucet for a while, people have been complaining that certain markets take a long time to resolve when the creators are gone from the site, and that flagging admins doesn't help because the admins are overwhelmed. This change is intended to let trustworthy-ish users (many of whom are very active and notice when markets have met their criteria before admins do) to go ahead and resolve markets themselves.
We're asking trustworthy-ish users to do so when:
The market criteria has been met for a week or longer
There's no controversy about the correct resolution
And to leave a comment when doing so on the market
Of course, if we notice trustworthy-ish users abusing this, we always have the ability to 1) revert the market resolution and 2) demote the offending users. In practice, I expect this the occur in fewer than 2 out of 100 markets
@Austin I think it's a good idea and also adds prestige to becoming a "trustworthy.ish" user. I would be surprised if there are a lot of unintended resolutions - my first inclination is that I'll be unlikely to resolve anyone else's markets out of fear of losing the badge!
@Austin I'd be more worried about a user getting phished and resolving every market on the site. maybe make it require 2+ trustworthy users to agree?