Will I have a surprising market resolution before the end of 2026?
6
1kṀ290Dec 31
45%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
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ALL
Resolves YES if any market (except for this one to avoid paradoxes) created by this account was either below 10% for a sustained period of time and ends up resolving YES, or above 90% and ends up resolving NO.
"Sustained period of time" means:
-At least 24 hours
-At least 3 distinct human accounts made a trade in the market
This definition is because it is common for a market to reach extreme probabilities due to a single trader (usually a newer account) making a very large bet, but these are typically corrected quickly.
Resolves N/A if it is clear that manipulation has occurred on other markets in order to influence this market's resolution.
I will not bet on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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