1
Will anyone else resolve one of my other markets against my intentions by the end of 2023?
52
closes 2024
30%
chance

Manifold just implimented the ability for trustworthyish users to resolve other people's markets, with pretty much no guardrails. I could go and incorrectly resolve the largest market on Manifold right now. Seems potentially bad.

If one of my markets other than this one gets resolved by someone else in a manner I consider incorrect or otherwise disruptive, this market resolves to YES. Otherwise it resolves to NO at the end of the year.

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CodeandSolder avatar
CodeandSolderis predicting NO at 22%

Markets on popularity of this feature:

Shelvacu avatar
Shelvacu

if a resolution is put in place but soon after reverted, does this market still resolve YES?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

@Shelvacu If they misclicked and fixed their error themselves, not necessarily. If I have to be the one to fix it, that's definitely disruptive.

MakrIngrajam avatar
Mustang

I will hack the site and do it.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

@MakrIngrajam Another to add to the list!

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

(This is the list, for anybody out of the loop.)

LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucet

Manifold just implimented the ability for trustworthyish users to resolve other people's markets, with pretty much no guardrails.

Wait what? If you have a badge you can resolve any market? That's it?

AndrewG avatar
Andrew G

@LarsDoucet yeah, just tested it, and it seems to work.

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysbought Ṁ10 of NO

@AndrewG Which market?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

@LarsDoucet Yep. You should see a "resolve" button on this market, and if you press it, it'll work.

CarsonGale avatar
Carson Gale

@IsaacKing wow this is a shocking amount of power

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

@CarsonGale Yep. Definitely makes the trustworthiness part of the badge matter a lot more.

LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucet

@IsaacKing @Austin what's up with this policy? Seems a bit strange to me.

Austin avatar
Austin

@LarsDoucet for a while, people have been complaining that certain markets take a long time to resolve when the creators are gone from the site, and that flagging admins doesn't help because the admins are overwhelmed. This change is intended to let trustworthy-ish users (many of whom are very active and notice when markets have met their criteria before admins do) to go ahead and resolve markets themselves.

We're asking trustworthy-ish users to do so when:

  • The market criteria has been met for a week or longer

  • There's no controversy about the correct resolution

  • And to leave a comment when doing so on the market

Of course, if we notice trustworthy-ish users abusing this, we always have the ability to 1) revert the market resolution and 2) demote the offending users. In practice, I expect this the occur in fewer than 2 out of 100 markets

CarsonGale avatar
Carson Gale

@Austin I think it's a good idea and also adds prestige to becoming a "trustworthy.ish" user. I would be surprised if there are a lot of unintended resolutions - my first inclination is that I'll be unlikely to resolve anyone else's markets out of fear of losing the badge!

LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucet

@Austin Oh so time has to elapse first okay

bjubes avatar
bjubes

@Austin I'd be more worried about a user getting phished and resolving every market on the site. maybe make it require 2+ trustworthy users to agree?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac
AndrewG avatar
Andrew G

"I could go and incorrectly resolve the largest market on Manifold right now. Seems potentially bad." Well, given that admins can re-open and/or re-resolve, it doesn't seem worth losing all your reputation over zero profits.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

@AndrewG Well that's why I'm not doing it, yes. Doesn't mean it wouldn't be very disruptive and lower users' trust in Manifold.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall

Maybe change the criteria to exclude this market?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

@MartinRandall Sure, that seems simpler.

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