Will anyone else resolve one of my other markets against my intentions by the end of 2023?
resolved Dec 27

Manifold just implimented the ability for trustworthyish users to resolve other people's markets, with pretty much no guardrails. I could go and incorrectly resolve the largest market on Manifold right now. Seems potentially bad.

If one of my markets other than this one gets resolved by someone else in a manner I consider incorrect or otherwise disruptive, this market resolves to YES. Otherwise it resolves to NO at the end of the year.

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bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

So close! But @Jacy just couldn't stand to wait for nap confirmation.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing Oof. @Jacy Why do you do this to me?

@Shump @IsaacKing I'm not following. Is "Going to take a refueling break rn and a short nap" and then radio silence and then resuming not sufficient evidence of "Will FUH take a nap in between start and finish? (If they try to sleep but fail, that still counts.)"? This seems to be on the conservative end of market resolutions, though I see how it could be even more conservative: You could wait until post-nap confirmation that they really did try, wait until a third party confirms they saw him trying to nap, wait until a notary or trusted public official witnesses the nap attempt, etc.

predicted YES

@Jacy My intention was to wait for confirmation; people change their minds. It turned out to be correct, so no big deal, but I had made an intentional choice not to resolve the answer based on that message from FUH in the discord, so it qualifies for this market.

predicted NO

@Jacy howcome you're resolving markets of non-inactive users anyway?


predicted NO

Markets on popularity of this feature:

if a resolution is put in place but soon after reverted, does this market still resolve YES?

@Shelvacu If they misclicked and fixed their error themselves, not necessarily. If I have to be the one to fix it, that's definitely disruptive.

I will hack the site and do it.

@MakrIngrajam Another to add to the list!

(This is the list, for anybody out of the loop.)

Manifold just implimented the ability for trustworthyish users to resolve other people's markets, with pretty much no guardrails.

Wait what? If you have a badge you can resolve any market? That's it?

@LarsDoucet yeah, just tested it, and it seems to work.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@AndrewG Which market?

@LarsDoucet Yep. You should see a "resolve" button on this market, and if you press it, it'll work.

@IsaacKing wow this is a shocking amount of power

@CarsonGale Yep. Definitely makes the trustworthiness part of the badge matter a lot more.

@IsaacKing @Austin what's up with this policy? Seems a bit strange to me.

@LarsDoucet for a while, people have been complaining that certain markets take a long time to resolve when the creators are gone from the site, and that flagging admins doesn't help because the admins are overwhelmed. This change is intended to let trustworthy-ish users (many of whom are very active and notice when markets have met their criteria before admins do) to go ahead and resolve markets themselves.

We're asking trustworthy-ish users to do so when:

  • The market criteria has been met for a week or longer

  • There's no controversy about the correct resolution

  • And to leave a comment when doing so on the market

Of course, if we notice trustworthy-ish users abusing this, we always have the ability to 1) revert the market resolution and 2) demote the offending users. In practice, I expect this the occur in fewer than 2 out of 100 markets

@Austin I think it's a good idea and also adds prestige to becoming a "trustworthy.ish" user. I would be surprised if there are a lot of unintended resolutions - my first inclination is that I'll be unlikely to resolve anyone else's markets out of fear of losing the badge!

@Austin Oh so time has to elapse first okay

@Austin I'd be more worried about a user getting phished and resolving every market on the site. maybe make it require 2+ trustworthy users to agree?

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