Will any non-state group detonate a nuclear weapon, successfully killing at least 1 person, before 2040?
6
100Ṁ226
2040
12%
chance

Nuclear weapons detonated by states do not count for this. For the purposes of this market a “state” is any place which has a seat at the United Nations or any organisation acting at the behest of such a place.

To get a “yes” the detonated device must clearly be intended to kill people and must use nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, or some other sub-atomic process to generate energy. Bombs which merely use radioactive material as a kind of poison do not count.

“Yes” if at least one person is killed by a non-state group using a nuclear device by 1st January 2040.

“No” if no one has been killed in such a way.

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