Will any serious market-creator on Manifold cherry-pick by the end of 2023?
57
820Ṁ3750
resolved Jan 15
Resolved
NO

This market resolves YES if:

  • Any market creator with at least 500 total traders resolves a market based on data that they selectivly focused on, while ignoring other applicable data that may undermine their conclusion.

  • Any market creator with at least 500 total traders personally collects multiple cherries from at least one cherry tree.

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Resolving NO as no one has presented an example and I'm not aware of any. Feel free to present one and I'll re-resolve as necessary.

The only market that might fit the criteria seems to be this one: https://manifold.markets/VictorLevoso/will-a-noncrappy-video-equivalent-o

There seems to be some controversy in the comments, though I don't know if it would qualify as cherry-picking. However, the words "cherry-picked" are in both the market description and the comments.

@Arky Doesn't seem like it, since it resolved NO. Can't be cherry-picking if the creator isn't picking out some examples and ignoring others.

I think the resolution of this is going to be cherrypicked, but it also resolves "at the end of the year" so IDK if it counts: https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-there-be-a-military-conflict-b

@manyu Must occur before this market's close time.

@manyu I did no such thing. The following criteria were clearly met so it resolved correctly:

  • Targeted assassinations conducted by either side against government or military leaders of the other regardless of where they take place.

predictedYES

@IsaacKing It closed on Dec 31 while yours closed Jan 1, btw.

Could this market self-resolve if the market creator of this market cherry-picks when resolving this market?

@B I suppose it could!

Hmm cherry picking from a tree sounds like a fun thing to try on a weekend :p

If someone takes an action that would fulfill these conditions but does not have at least 500 total traders and later gets 500 total traders but does not take an action causing these conditions to be fulfilled again does this resolve yes?

@Xe and also are "total traders" the number that is listed as "unique traders" on one's profile or is it the sum of traders in all created markets (including duplicates)?

@Xe

  1. No, they must satisfy the criteria at the time of the action.

  2. Those are the same thing, it's just a bad naming scheme.

@IsaacKing Thanks! Final question: about the cherry tree route do the cherries have to be picked from a tree at the same time or is it ok to have them picked days, weeks, etc. apart?

@Xe Hmm. I think it should be a single cherry-picking activity.

@IsaacKing thank you very much! I hope I've successfully encompassed the conditions of your market in my own :33

Does Salem Center's whitelabeled Manifold Market implementation count? Keeping an eye on this one... https://salemcenter.manifold.markets/SalemCenter/china-reaches-100000-covid-cases-by

@PatrickDelaney No, I'm only going to count the main site.

LMFAO!! 🤣

that second bullet is absolutely priceless.

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