CarsonGale avatar
Carson Gale
closes Jan 1, 2026
Will 50%+ of the top market creators on Manifold as of Jan 2023 be displaced from the Top 20 list by end of 2025?
76%
chance

My soft intuition is that, as Manifold grows, there will be lasting benefits for market creators that established an early foothold, primarily due to (i) low-hanging market creation fruit, (ii) established trustworthiness, (iii) existing follower count, and (iv) the existing 'Trustworthy.ish' validation system.

Displacement forecasts can test this intuition for the top market creators. Purely on the merits of their markets, you wouldn't expect the 'top 20 market creators' to continue in their position as the user base scales, as there is a larger population base from which to draw new market creators. If there are sticking benefits for early adopters, you might expect to see an unrepresentative proportion of the top market creators continue to be early adopters.

There are, of course, numerous other variables that may displace top creators even with sticking benefits (e..g, top user inactivity, platform adoption by famous users, etc.)

This market resolves positively if 50% or more of the following top 20 market creators are displaced from the Top Creators list by 2025-12-31. If the 'Top Creators' criteria are meaningfully modified, I may decide to resolve the market "n/a".

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