Will I fulfill the conditions to be a cherry-picking serious market creator via the cherry tree route by the end of 2023

Question

Definitions

Here is a market which sets out conditions for a serious market owner cherry picking

(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/will-any-serious-marketcreator-on-m)This market will only consider the "cherry tree route" which is defined to be the second bullet point in the linked market

Situation

This is my first market on manifold markets

I indend to create more markets

I would like to make this resolve yes. I will be bidding yes on this market and will only be bidding yes on this market

I own an extremely small cherry tree on which grows a small number of cherries per year

That number is always greater than one

Sometimes other people who I live with pick the cherries instead of me

I can and will ask them not to, and they'll probably follow that

Resolution criteria

Yes

I have at least 500 total traders by the end of the year

After achieving 500 total traders I have picked at least two cherries in "a single cherry-picking activity"

It is acceptable for me to pick cherries additional times so long as there is at least one cherry-picking activity with at least two cherries picked in it

No

All other situations

50%

This market never resolves 50%

N/A

This market never resolves N/A

Ambiguity

In the case of ambiguity, I'll resolve this market in whichever way best meets the spirit of the market in my opinion. If you notify me of the ambiguity beforehand in the manifold comments I'll do my best to clarify and edit the description to reflect my clarification.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 10, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.