Austin avatar
closes Jan 1, 2028
Will Sam Altman create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI

Sam has previously expressed support for Kalshi's bid for 2022 congressional markets, in a letter to the CFTC:

I would not be writing this letter if I was not confident that this contract would not be contrary to the public interest. These contracts are obviously not the only economic exposure that small businesses and individuals have to elections. As I just illustrated, there are already significant exposures to elections. These contracts would actually help manage their existing risk. As an added advantage, the price of the contract represents the best “wisdom of the crowd” estimate of the probability of a given party winning the election. This data can be highly valuable to small businesses trying to make plans about the future and wondering about the expected future path of federal policy, but also to researchers who are trying to estimate the effects of one party’s agenda on various financial and economic variables.

See also /Austin/will-i-have-a-5-min-conversation-wi

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.

To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.