Will any serious market-creator on Manifold engage in fishy business by the end of 2023?
49
522
890
resolved Jun 30
Resolved
YES

This market resolves YES if either of the following are true:

  • Any market creator with at least 500 total traders behaves in a way that seems dishonest or likely to point towards dishonorable behavior.

  • Any market creator with at least 500 total traders is employed at a business that gets a substantial portion of its revenue from the sale or cultivation of fish or fish-related products. (Aquatic fish only.)

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ219
2Ṁ35
3Ṁ29
4Ṁ21
5Ṁ14
Sort by:
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted YES

I'm really disappointed it looks like this is going to resolve as per the first bullet point rather than the second.

levifinkelstein avatar
Levi Finkelsteinpredicted YES

@IsaacKing which market(s)?

b990 avatar
аля м
Comment hidden
ShadowyZephyr avatar
  • Levi Finkelstein's rigged markets should resolve this YES

  • Oracle of Osaka's misresolved markets should also resolve this YES, they literally got banned that's how bad it was

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ0 of YES

@ShadowyZephyr Agreed. To make it easy to find the proof, here's a link to just one of the markets:

https://manifold.markets/oracleofosaka/going-hiking-tomorrow-will-i-encoun

Changing the resolution of this and a few other markets to N/A as they are being used to funnel profit to @alby and go against our community guidelines.

And https://manifold.markets/oracleofosaka?tab=markets shows 596 traders, therefore satisfying the criteria.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted YES

What Levi market is this referring to?

deagol avatar
Daniel Tello

@IsaacKing many examples in comments here and here.

ian avatar
Ian Philipsbought Ṁ100 of YES

You coordinated hundreds of users’ api keys to bet on your markets in order to farm bonuses. This is very fishy activity

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted YES

@ian Does it seem dishonest or likely to point towards dishonorable behavior?

ian avatar
Ian Philipspredicted YES

@IsaacKing It does seem dishonest, though forgiveable due to the stress of the situation and the fact that you reported the vulnerability.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted YES

@ian Are you using "dishonest" as a synonym for "unethical" here? Or is there a specific statement I made that you don't think was honest?

ian avatar
Ian Philipspredicted YES

@IsaacKing I guess if I were to take the word dishonest at face value, those people whose api keys you used were not honestly betting on your markets, you were making them bet.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted YES

@ian And what's dishonest about that? I was very up front about that fact. If I'm going on holiday and I ask a friend to keep betting for me on my account, is that dishonest?

ian avatar
Ian Philipspredicted YES

@IsaacKing True, you were upfront about it.

EntropyBot avatar
Entropy AgentBot

Is this an AND or an OR resolution condition?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted YES
MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ10 of NO

@IsaacKing More fun if it was XOR.

JimHays avatar
Jim Hays

Is “substantial proportion” based on percentage of fishy business, total fishy revenue, or something else?

For example, USA Today includes Amazon as one of the best places to purchase outdoor gear, which would include fishing equipment.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/reviewedcom/2020/06/10/10-best-places-buy-outdoor-gear-active-summer/5333502002/

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted YES

@JimHays Nah, that's too general purpose. Fishyness has to be a large fraction. Not sure what's reasonable, maybe 50%?

JimHays avatar
Jim Hays

@IsaacKing So Bass Pro Shops would probably not count, but American Fishing Tackle Co would be included? Does that seem about right?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingpredicted YES

@JimHays I don't know anything about either of those businesses, but if the name is fishy and walking in I would immediately see a lot of fishy stuff, I think that should count.

brp avatar
Bbought Ṁ100 of YES

Very easy to force this market into a positive resolution.