Will any serious market-creator on Manifold engage in fishy business by the end of 2023?
2024
90%
chance

This market resolves YES if:

  • Any market creator with at least 500 total traders behaves in a way that seems dishonest or likely to point towards dishonorable behavior.

  • Any market creator with at least 500 total traders is employed at a business that gets a substantial portion of its revenue from the sale or cultivation of fish or fish-related products. (Aquatic fish only.)

Sort by:
JimHays avatar
Jim Hays

Is “substantial proportion” based on percentage of fishy business, total fishy revenue, or something else?

For example, USA Today includes Amazon as one of the best places to purchase outdoor gear, which would include fishing equipment.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/reviewedcom/2020/06/10/10-best-places-buy-outdoor-gear-active-summer/5333502002/

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingis predicting YES at 90%

@JimHays Nah, that's too general purpose. Fishyness has to be a large fraction. Not sure what's reasonable, maybe 50%?

JimHays avatar
Jim Hays

@IsaacKing So Bass Pro Shops would probably not count, but American Fishing Tackle Co would be included? Does that seem about right?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac Kingis predicting YES at 90%

@JimHays I don't know anything about either of those businesses, but if the name is fishy and walking in I would immediately see a lot of fishy stuff, I think that should count.

brp avatar
brpbought Ṁ100 of YES

Very easy to force this market into a positive resolution.