Will any serious market-creator on Manifold engage in fishy business by the end of 2023? | Manifold Markets

Will any serious market-creator on Manifold engage in fishy business by the end of 2023?

2024

12

90%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves YES if:

Any market creator with at least 500 total traders behaves in a way that seems dishonest or likely to point towards dishonorable behavior.
Any market creator with at least 500 total traders is employed at a business that gets a substantial portion of its revenue from the sale or cultivation of fish or fish-related products. (Aquatic fish only.)

Sort by:

Is “substantial proportion” based on percentage of fishy business, total fishy revenue, or something else?

For example, USA Today includes Amazon as one of the best places to purchase outdoor gear, which would include fishing equipment.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/reviewedcom/2020/06/10/10-best-places-buy-outdoor-gear-active-summer/5333502002/

Isaac Kingis predicting YES at 90%

@JimHays Nah, that's too general purpose. Fishyness has to be a large fraction. Not sure what's reasonable, maybe 50%?

@IsaacKing So Bass Pro Shops would probably not count, but American Fishing Tackle Co would be included? Does that seem about right?

Isaac Kingis predicting YES at 90%

@JimHays I don't know anything about either of those businesses, but if the name is fishy and walking in I would immediately see a lot of fishy stuff, I think that should count.

brpbought Ṁ100 of YES

Very easy to force this market into a positive resolution.

Related markets

Will any serious market-creator on Manifold cherry-pick by the end of 2023?93%

Will anyone do significant harm to another person in order to manipulate a market on Manifold by the end of 2024?5%

Will Manifold forbid market creators to participate in their own market in 2023?5%

Will Manifold crack down on markets designed to harvest mana by the end of 2023?36%

Will Manifold create functionality for market creators to transfer ownership of their markets by end of 2023?29%

Will I be able to create matrix markets on Manifold by end of 2023?65%

Will at least 10 for-profit corporations create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?71%

Will Manifold allow market creators to assign market resolution to other users by the end of 2023?62%

Will a market on Manifold be used as evidence in any legal proceeding by the end of 2024?14%

Related markets

Will any serious market-creator on Manifold cherry-pick by the end of 2023?93%

Will anyone do significant harm to another person in order to manipulate a market on Manifold by the end of 2024?5%

Will Manifold forbid market creators to participate in their own market in 2023?5%

Will Manifold crack down on markets designed to harvest mana by the end of 2023?36%

Will Manifold create functionality for market creators to transfer ownership of their markets by end of 2023?29%

Will I be able to create matrix markets on Manifold by end of 2023?65%

Will at least 10 for-profit corporations create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?71%

Will Manifold allow market creators to assign market resolution to other users by the end of 2023?62%

Will a market on Manifold be used as evidence in any legal proceeding by the end of 2024?14%