Will bees still be a type of fish at the beginning of 2030? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2030

Will bees still be a type of fish at the beginning of 2030?

63%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/who-knew-bees-are-fish-2022-06-02/

Resolves according to whether California's Fish and Game Code still defines bees as fish.

(This market is about what's written in the code, not about what a court finds is enforceable.)

Sort by:

Comment hidden

Martin Randallbought Ṁ10 of NO

If the CA fish and game code no longer contains a definition of fish, or does not exist, it seems this should resolve no?

@MartinRandall Correct. If the name of the document changes, I'll use what's in the new document. But if it goes away entirely, this resolves NO.

So according to this case, bees are fish under CA law. But according to the Supreme Court, fish are not tangible objects in US v. Yates (2015). Therefore it appears to be that bees are not tangible objects

@ForrestTaylor Are court decisions subject to the transitive property?

California Supreme Court: We Don’t Think Bees Are Fish – Lowering the Bar

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 58%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 69%

Evan Þ bought Ṁ10 YES at 63%

Rai bought Ṁ10 YES from 62% to 63%

onepunch sold Ṁ32 YES from 64% to 62%

Multicore bought Ṁ10 YES at 64%

grecy smith sold Ṁ25 NO from 60% to 64%

Mordecai Weynberg sold Ṁ12 YES from 61% to 60%

jcb bought Ṁ10 YES from 60% to 61%

calos bought Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 60%

calos bought Ṁ10 YES from 58% to 59%

calos bought Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 58%

agpenjoyer bought Ṁ10 NO from 59% to 57%

BRTD bought Ṁ10 NO from 60% to 59%

Samuel Millerick bought Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 60%

Otto Peyer bought Ṁ10 YES from 58% to 59%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 NO at 58% (cancelled)

onepunch bought Ṁ10 YES from 58% to 60%

onepunch bought Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 58%

onepunch bought Ṁ10 YES from 55% to 57%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ100 YES at 55% (cancelled)

grecy smith bought Ṁ10 NO from 54% to 52%

grecy smith bought Ṁ10 NO from 56% to 54%

grecy smith bought Ṁ10 NO from 58% to 56%

ewired bought Ṁ10 YES from 56% to 58%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 YES at 56% (cancelled)

VivaLaPanda bought Ṁ25 NO from 61% to 55%

Martin Randall bought Ṁ10 NO from 64% to 61%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 YES at 64% (cancelled)

Duncn bought Ṁ15 NO from 67% to 63%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 YES at 67% (cancelled)

Duncn bought Ṁ15 NO from 70% to 65%

Nathan bought Ṁ10 NO from 73% to 70%

iratevowel bought Ṁ5 YES from 72% to 73%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 YES at 72% (cancelled)

Em bought Ṁ10 NO from 75% to 71%

Angola Maldives bought Ṁ10 YES from 73% to 75%

Mordecai Weynberg bought Ṁ15 YES from 70% to 73%

Garrett Baker bought Ṁ10 YES from 67% to 70%

Garrett Baker bought Ṁ10 YES from 64% to 67%

Garrett Baker bought Ṁ10 YES from 60% to 64%

Garrett Baker bought Ṁ10 NO from 66% to 60%

Samuel bought Ṁ10 YES from 62% to 66%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ5 YES from 59% to 62%

Jack bought Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 59%

Related markets

Will the dodo be de-extincted before 2040?21%

Will something at least as good as beau's ideal world have been achieved by 2100?61%

Will we uplift another species by 2075?35%

Will the Javan rhinoceros go extinct before 2030?46%

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?11%

Will the number of species known to be extinct since 1500 (IUCN EX) reach 950 by 2030?68%

By the start of 2033, will at least a billion people be alive?90%

Will New Zealand be predator-free in 2050?53%

Will the world population decrease before 2030?19%

Related markets

Will the dodo be de-extincted before 2040?21%

Will something at least as good as beau's ideal world have been achieved by 2100?61%

Will we uplift another species by 2075?35%

Will the Javan rhinoceros go extinct before 2030?46%

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?11%

Will the number of species known to be extinct since 1500 (IUCN EX) reach 950 by 2030?68%

By the start of 2033, will at least a billion people be alive?90%

Will New Zealand be predator-free in 2050?53%

Will the world population decrease before 2030?19%