Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023?
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023?
➕
Plus
153
Ṁ82k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

The detonation must include a nuclear component. The conventional explosives going off due to some accident or malfunction doesn't count.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ758
2Ṁ367
3Ṁ300
4Ṁ280
5Ṁ192


Sort by:
1y

If we find out about a secret test in a few months, I will re-resolve this to YES, but for now it looks like this didn't happen.

1y
1y

@NickAllen Pretty sure this was sub-critical.

1y

@NickAllen I'd prefer if people put more effort into fact-checking before they claim that a market should resolve. If you're not sure whether it's credible and don't want to do the work yourself, just post the link on its own.

1y

Why this market, when there are already a lot of identical markets ?

predictedYES 1y

@dionisos I made one on each year up to several years out. Wanted them all to be identical for comparison purposes.

1y

@IsaacKing Ok, that make sense.

I think having 6+ identical markets isn’t very good. (https://manifold.markets/markets?s=daily-score&f=open&q=Will+any+nuclear+weapon+be+detonated+in+2023)
Mainly because it clutters the search/feed results (and also it ask for arbitrage).
Maybe some interface functionality could fix the problem, or maybe it isn’t really one (but I think it will become worth with more active users) ?

(Obviously it isn’t about this market in particular)

1y

worth → worse (I hole we will be able to edit comment soon)

1y

hope* 😭

predictedYES 1y

Yeah, there have been talks about the market creation page including a "similar markets" display like on StackOverflow.

1y

Roses are red,
Violets are blue,
2023's fate
Is bleak, dark and true.

1y

Same as

1y

Does this include tests?

1y

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules