Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023?
resolved Jan 1

The detonation must include a nuclear component. The conventional explosives going off due to some accident or malfunction doesn't count.

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If we find out about a secret test in a few months, I will re-resolve this to YES, but for now it looks like this didn't happen.

@NickAllen Pretty sure this was sub-critical.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@NickAllen I'd prefer if people put more effort into fact-checking before they claim that a market should resolve. If you're not sure whether it's credible and don't want to do the work yourself, just post the link on its own.

Why this market, when there are already a lot of identical markets ?

predicted YES

@dionisos I made one on each year up to several years out. Wanted them all to be identical for comparison purposes.

@IsaacKing Ok, that make sense.

I think having 6+ identical markets isn’t very good. (https://manifold.markets/markets?s=daily-score&f=open&q=Will+any+nuclear+weapon+be+detonated+in+2023)
Mainly because it clutters the search/feed results (and also it ask for arbitrage).
Maybe some interface functionality could fix the problem, or maybe it isn’t really one (but I think it will become worth with more active users) ?

(Obviously it isn’t about this market in particular)

worth → worse (I hole we will be able to edit comment soon)

hope* 😭

predicted YES

Yeah, there have been talks about the market creation page including a "similar markets" display like on StackOverflow.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Roses are red,
Violets are blue,
2023's fate
Is bleak, dark and true.

Same as

Does this include tests?