The detonation must include a nuclear component. The conventional explosives going off due to some accident or malfunction doesn't count.
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@NickAllen I'd prefer if people put more effort into fact-checking before they claim that a market should resolve. If you're not sure whether it's credible and don't want to do the work yourself, just post the link on its own.
@dionisos I made one on each year up to several years out. Wanted them all to be identical for comparison purposes.
@IsaacKing Ok, that make sense.
I think having 6+ identical markets isnโt very good. (https://manifold.markets/markets?s=daily-score&f=open&q=Will+any+nuclear+weapon+be+detonated+in+2023)
Mainly because it clutters the search/feed results (and also it ask for arbitrage).
Maybe some interface functionality could fix the problem, or maybe it isnโt really one (but I think it will become worth with more active users) ?
(Obviously it isnโt about this market in particular)