By the end of 2023, will any real-world event have had at least 20 different Manifold markets about it with near-identical resolution criteria?

Question

Inspired by the 4+ markets that all got made about Elon's Twitter poll on whether they should step down as head of Twitter.

The resolution criteria of the 20 markets don't have to be exactly the same, they just need to be similar enough that placing identical (or bitswapped) bets in all the markets is probably a decent strategy.

The intent of this market was about redundant markets, and markets on different time frames for the same event are quite useful. For this to resolve YES, there need to be 19 markets that don't seem to have a clear purpose for existing, and could safely be folded into another market. Any differences in close time must be negligible. (A few hours for something on the order of a week, a few days for something on the order of a year, etc.)

I will ignore any markets that seem to be trying to manipulate this one, such as one person creating 20 identical markets, or someone placing a large bet on YES in this market right as they create the 20th one on some other event.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Jan 2, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.