Will any long-term market have at least 1000 traders by the end of 2023?
22
143
410
resolved Dec 28
Resolved
YES

A "long-term market" here will mean any market that, per its stated resolution criteria, has a decent chance of not resolving until after the beginning of 2030.

(Not including markets that will never resolve, like the permanent stock markets.)

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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bought Ṁ400 of YES

@IsaacKing This one should resolve it, right? https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned

It tracks if Trump will be serving time during his lifetime. It will resolve if that happens or Trump dies. So there is decent chance it won't resolve before 2030 (when he won't be sentenced or die before 2030).

bought Ṁ9 of YES

@Weezing 2% chance resolves positively after 2030, + 0.41 * 67% resolves negatively after from this market https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-donald-trump-still-be-alive-at = 29% chance. I'd say that's fairly decent.

bought Ṁ25 of NO

This would be the most close-ish one: