A "long-term market" here will mean any market that, per its stated resolution criteria, has a decent chance of not resolving until after the beginning of 2030.
(Not including markets that will never resolve, like the permanent stock markets.)
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@IsaacKing This one should resolve it, right? https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
It tracks if Trump will be serving time during his lifetime. It will resolve if that happens or Trump dies. So there is decent chance it won't resolve before 2030 (when he won't be sentenced or die before 2030).
@Weezing 2% chance resolves positively after 2030, + 0.41 * 67% resolves negatively after from this market https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-donald-trump-still-be-alive-at = 29% chance. I'd say that's fairly decent.