Will any long-term market have at least 500 traders by the end of 2023?

closes 2024

93%

chance

ALL

A "long-term market" here will mean any market that, per its stated resolution criteria, has a decent chance of not resolving until after the beginning of 2030.

(Not including markets that will never resolve, like the Destiny "permanent" markets.)

Manifold

Predictions on Predictions

Meta-Forecasting

Sort by:

Isaacis predicting NO at 74%

Isaacbought Ṁ45 of NO

We're up to 224!

Yev

Do you mean after start of 2030 or after end of 2030?

Isaac

@Yev The beginning of 2030.

Manifold in the WildBot

Will any long-term market have at least 500 traders by the end of 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Isaac

Hazepski bought Ṁ15 NO at 93% 🎁

Trong bought Ṁ90 YES at 93% 🎁

Dan sold Ṁ8 NO from 92% to 93%

Levi Finkelstein bought Ṁ1 NO at 92% 🤖

Joshua bought Ṁ500 YES from 82% to 92%

HMYS_BOT_3000 bought Ṁ2 YES at 82%

C. P bought Ṁ4 NO at 82% 🎁

firstuserhere sold Ṁ503 YES from 92% to 82%

HMYS_BOT_3000 bought Ṁ1 NO from 93% to 92%

Franklin Baldo sold Ṁ1 NO from 92% to 93%

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ5 YES at 92%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ500 YES from 80% to 92%

Entropy AgentBot bought Ṁ1 NO at 80%

Adelani Ayobami sold Ṁ1 YES at 80%

Adelani Ayobami bought Ṁ1 YES at 80%

Dan bought Ṁ20 NO from 85% to 80%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ6 NO at 85% (cancelled)

zzq bought Ṁ100 YES from 81% to 86%

Galen bought Ṁ60 YES from 77% to 81%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 NO at 77% (cancelled)

Galen bought Ṁ100 YES from 68% to 78%

Pat Myron sold Ṁ1 YES from 69% to 68%

Pat Myron bought Ṁ1 YES from 68% to 69%

Isaac filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 YES at 68%

Isaac bought Ṁ45 NO from 74% to 59%

Neon Nuke sold Ṁ26 YES from 77% to 74%

Daniel Ziegler bought Ṁ10 YES from 75% to 77%

Timothy sold Ṁ27 YES from 78% to 75%

Neon Nuke filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 NO at 78%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ10 YES from 78% to 79%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ10 YES from 76% to 78%

Orpheus bought Ṁ10 YES from 75% to 76%

Isaac bought Ṁ10 NO from 80% to 75%

Amit Amin bought Ṁ25 YES from 76% to 80%

Neon Nuke created limit order for Ṁ8 NO at 80% (cancelled)

Anthony Carlino bought Ṁ10 YES from 73% to 76%

Timothy sold Ṁ23 YES from 81% to 73%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 NO at 81% (cancelled)

Timothy bought Ṁ29 YES from 75% to 84%

Timothy bought Ṁ10 YES from 71% to 75%

zzq bought Ṁ10 YES from 66% to 71%

Timothy bought Ṁ10 YES from 59% to 66%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ0/Ṁ100 NO at 59% (cancelled)

Neon Nuke bought Ṁ20 YES from 41% to 60%

Franklin Baldo bought Ṁ10 NO from 50% to 41%

Related markets

Isaac

Will this market have at least 500 traders by the end of 2023?32%

Isaac

Will any long-term market have at least 1000 traders by the end of 2023?68%

Brian T. Edwards

Will any of my markets have 1000 traders by the end of 2023?46%

Isaac

Will this market reach 200 traders by the end of 2023?42%

Isaac

Will any of my markets about prediction market longevity have at least 100 traders by the end of 2023?26%

Carson Gale

Will any of my markets have >200 unique traders by end of 2023?87%

Carson Gale

By the end of 2023, will my most popular market have > 200 unique traders?89%

Conflux

Will any of my markets get more traders than The Market in 2023?27%

Isaac

Will any "permanent" stock with at least 50 traders be resolved by the end of 2023?61%

Isaac

Will my relationship market have at least 100 unique traders by the end of 2023?40%

tailcalled

Will I make a market with at least 100 traders this year?58%

Isaac

By the end of 2023, will anyone have an untrustworthy badge for at least a month, and create at least 2 markets during that time that get at least 50 traders each?12%

Isaac

Will any CGP Grey market get at least 200 traders by the end of 2023?72%

Carson Gale

Will there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?27%

Isaac

Will any market have at least 10 million (real) volume by the end of 2023?39%

Will the FairlyRandom group contain at least 300 markets at the end of 2023?26%

Carson Gale

Will my Unique Traders to Total Markets ratio be 10+ by end of 2023?62%

Isaac

If any market creators reach 500 resolutions by the end of 2023, will any of them have a perfect record?54%

Isaac

At the end of 2023, will any of my open markets with at least 40 traders have gone for at least 2 months with no bids?41%

Will we have at least 35 world flipping markets by 2023 year end?58%

Related markets

Isaac

Will this market have at least 500 traders by the end of 2023?32%

Isaac

Will any long-term market have at least 1000 traders by the end of 2023?68%

Brian T. Edwards

Will any of my markets have 1000 traders by the end of 2023?46%

Isaac

Will this market reach 200 traders by the end of 2023?42%

Isaac

Will any of my markets about prediction market longevity have at least 100 traders by the end of 2023?26%

Carson Gale

Will any of my markets have >200 unique traders by end of 2023?87%

Carson Gale

By the end of 2023, will my most popular market have > 200 unique traders?89%

Conflux

Will any of my markets get more traders than The Market in 2023?27%

Isaac

Will any "permanent" stock with at least 50 traders be resolved by the end of 2023?61%

Isaac

Will my relationship market have at least 100 unique traders by the end of 2023?40%

tailcalled

Will I make a market with at least 100 traders this year?58%

Isaac

By the end of 2023, will anyone have an untrustworthy badge for at least a month, and create at least 2 markets during that time that get at least 50 traders each?12%

Isaac

Will any CGP Grey market get at least 200 traders by the end of 2023?72%

Carson Gale

Will there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?27%

Isaac

Will any market have at least 10 million (real) volume by the end of 2023?39%

Will the FairlyRandom group contain at least 300 markets at the end of 2023?26%

Carson Gale

Will my Unique Traders to Total Markets ratio be 10+ by end of 2023?62%

Isaac

If any market creators reach 500 resolutions by the end of 2023, will any of them have a perfect record?54%

Isaac

At the end of 2023, will any of my open markets with at least 40 traders have gone for at least 2 months with no bids?41%

Will we have at least 35 world flipping markets by 2023 year end?58%