Will AI reach human-level performance in Magic: The Gathering before 2026?
41
1kṀ3384
2026
14%
chance

Resolves YES if an AI can beat me or a similarly-skilled player at least 4 times out of 10 games in a mirror-match. (The AI and I both have the same deck and the same amount of time, with at least 30 minutes per game.) Only the strategical decisions must be made by the AI; a human can do the card motions (if tabletop) or clicking and data entry (if online).

Any reliable evidence that this has occurred is sufficient: e.g. a paper published where the researchers claim to have run such a test.

The AI can't be designed for the specific deck it's playing, it needs to be general-purpose. It does get to know in advance of the game what cards are in the deck it's been given. Any reasonable deck for a serious format is fine; it can't just be Forests and Grizzly Bears.

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