Resolves YES if AI is consistently better than me (and any other human) across all rules-related tasks. It does not need to be perfect, nor does it need to be better than a collective of humans who can error-correct for each other. Any type of AI system qualifies.
For an easier version of this question, see /IsaacKing/will-ai-be-able-to-accurately-answe
1,000@IsaacKing you don't think they could fine tune a reasoning model on the comprehensive rules and a huge database of past rulings?
@MichaelWheatley IMO, the gap between "can they" and "will someone" is the main consideration for betting.
Domain-specific AIs are an incredibly useful hammer, but not every nail is the same priority. I think there will be a lot of other, more economically valuable, things that the tech will be applied to first.
That said, never underestimate nerds applying tech to their toys ...