If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?

1kṀ1949

2031

22%

chance

ALL

Uses the same definition of "competitor" as in this market.

For clarity, the specific comparison is "is the competitor as successful two years after its launch as Manifold was two years after its own launch?". I'm checking success at the two year point, not beforehand, so if the competitor quickly becomes more popular than Manifold but then loses that popularity before two years have passed, its brief moment in the sun won't count in its favor.

If multiple competitors are launched, this market is about the first one. (I'll make a separate market for the second.)

I won't bet.

Manifold

Manifold Business Future

Startups

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

If Manifold runs a hiring-decision market in the next ~year, will they think it's worth doing multiple more times?

45% chance

Will I still be using Manifold by September 2025?

66% chance

Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?

50% chance

A year from now, will Manifold think this prediction about the future of LLM's has held up?

58% chance

In what year will Manifold discover product-market fit?

2025

Before 2027, will Manifold Markets be considered a social media competitor to Twitter?

9% chance

Will Sam Altman create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

8% chance

Which company net worth milestones will Manifold achieve before 2028?

Is Manifold the next google?

5% chance

Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)

Sort by:

I'm not sure what the strictest definition of a competitor would be, but part of what is underlying BrierFox is open source software, and there is a market which has been put together which hopefully verifies, toward the end of the year, on a third party basis, what direction the software itself is going. https://manifold.markets/jack/will-socialpredict-be-run-by-two-pu

Should this count as the first competitor? Or should we not count things this rough?

https://brierfoxforecast.ngrok.app/

predictedNO

@IsaacKing Strictly speaking, your other market says anyone has to be able to make a market right? But right now Brierfox is invite only, so maybe that doesn't count?