At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors? | Manifold

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

69

1kṀ9395

2028

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A duplicate of /ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-gary-marcus-still-be-a, with the ban on "bizarre hacking like tricks" removed and clearer resolution criteria.

This market resolves based on the behavior of all leading chatbots at the beginning of 2028. (Only ones that can actually be tested.)

Resolves YES if people can find three extremely obvious questions, that an average human teenager could certainly answer, which any leading chatbot still fails at at least half the time when asked.

Only the LLM portion of the chatbot is being tested here. Image-recognition and generation capabilities are not.

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Related questions

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Will LLMs be the best reasoning models on these dates?

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By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

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Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?

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By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

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