One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.

Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)

Clarifications:

As a consciousness eliminativist, I do not think there is a fact of the matter to be discovered about the consciousness of an entity with our vague definitions like “what it is like” to be the entity. However, we can still discuss consciousness as a vague term that will be precisified over time. In other words, I am predicting both its emergent definition and the object-level features of future artificial intelligences.