When will a neuroscientist say that artificial consciousness has been invented?
Basic
3
Ṁ772100
34%
Before 2030
50%
Before 2035
50%
Before 2040
62%
Before 2050
72%
Before 2075
80%
Before 2100
Resolves positively if a neuroscientist publishes an article in a top journal (either interdisciplinary or top neuroscience journal) claiming there is something that it's like to be an artificial system that has been created, with confidence of at least 50%.
Will only resolve positively for silicon based consciousness , not biological consciousness.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
38% chance
Artificial consciousness will emerge in the course of increasing AI capabilities
67% chance
Will artificial sentience be created by end of 2050?
58% chance
Will a major AI company acknowledge the possibility of conscious AIs by 2026?
75% chance
If the hard problem of consciousness is solved, what will be true of it?
Will artificial sentience be created by end of 2030?
21% chance
In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?
Will an AI simulate human consciousness by 2100?
74% chance
Before what year will a conscious computer be built?
Will a fully functional brain-computer interface be commercially available by 2030?
43% chance