There is a large gap between the question of whether some AIs will be sentient and the one of whether 90%+ experts will agree on this. You pretty much never get this level of consensus in philosophy of mind, even on relatively easy questions. Moreover, there is a lack of established methodology for determining whether AI is sentient, so even if it is, it's very hard to get convincing empirical evidence.

@ALN Maybe thus the title shouldn't be whether sentient AI will be created, but rather whether there will be consensus that sentient AI exists?

Sydney Bing is alive

Could we build an artificial sentience right now if we wanted? Probably: according to most theories of consciousness it isn't very hard, just build something with a global workspace, or that has perceptions that feed into beliefs or that has high integrated information, or that forms beliefs about its own perceptual states, all of which we can probably do now, unless you think "real belief" requires human-level general intelligence anyway. Will you actually get over 90% of experts on consciousness to agree that a particular system is sentient by 2030, almost surely not. (Lots of experts don't really trust any current theory, or have a replacement in mind.)

I think it's only a matter of time before our own sentience is called into question, thus allowing for simple projections of that universal sentience onto all systems we create, especially those with culturally recognisable interfaces.

Digital computers are unlikely to be sentient

https://qualiacomputing.com/2022/06/19/digital-computers-will-remain-unconscious-until-they-recruit-physical-fields-for-holistic-computing-using-well-defined-topological-boundaries/

https://qri.org/blog/digital-sentience

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