Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States and Iran sign a new official agreement by February 28, 2026. The agreement must be formally signed by authorized representatives of both governments and publicly announced. Talks with the U.S. over a new nuclear deal could get underway in coming days, with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi set to meet US envoy Steve Witkoff in Istanbul. Resolution will be determined by official government statements, press releases, or credible news reports confirming a signed agreement. The agreement may be a new nuclear deal, a framework agreement, or any other formal accord between the two nations.

Background

The JCPOA placed significant restrictions on Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, but President Trump withdrew the United States from the deal in 2018. The JCPOA effectively came to an end on September 28, 2025, when European members triggered the snapback mechanism, which reimposed all previous UN sanctions. Washington and Tehran held several rounds of talks on an agreement to curb Iran's atomic activities last year, before Israel — later joined by the U.S. — began airstrikes in June, with Trump claiming Iran's nuclear program was obliterated. Trump told reporters on Saturday that Iran was "seriously talking" with Washington, hours after Iran's top national security official said arrangements for negotiations were progressing.

Considerations

Iran's Foreign Minister stressed that Iran's military posture was non-negotiable, stating "Iran's defensive capabilities and missiles will never be the subject of any negotiation," and added that no direct talks between Tehran and Washington are currently planned. Iran's foreign minister stated that "Iran has no problem with negotiations, but negotiations cannot take place under the shadow of threats", while the US president said a "massive armada" – led by the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier – was moving towards Iran and was ready to use "violence, if necessary".

This description was generated by AI.