MANIFOLD
Black Mirror Season 7 [Prop bets/Megamarket]
31
Ṁ1kṀ4.8k
resolved Mar 25
Resolved
YES
Actor with Oscar nomination plays a role
Resolved
YES
All episodes released at once
Resolved
YES
Average episode rating ≥7.0 on IMDB EOY 2025
Resolved
YES
Average episode rating ≥7.5 on IMDB EOY 2025
Resolved
YES
Something from the season nominated for an Emmy
Resolved
N/A
Somebody doubting whether another robot/human is a robot or human
Resolved
NO
Bonus episode outside of the original 6
Resolved
NO
Aaron Paul plays a role
Resolved
NO
First episode drops in Q4-2025
Resolved
NO
First episode drops in Q3-2025
Resolved
NO
Something from the season wins an Emmy award
Resolved
NO
An episode is more than 5% frames from generative AI
Resolved
NO
The words "black" and "mirror" are spoken in the same sentence

I reserve the right to remove, N/A, and/or clarify descriptions, as I see fit.

I expect this market to not be high stakes, and might bet in it even though I will be the one ultimately resolving questions. Bet at your own risk, although I will of course try to be fair and objective. (Will indeed try to ask for good resolution criteria for answers submitted by others!)

See also this other market which more talks about the actual content of episodes, while I consider this market broader.

I expect to

  • Update 2025-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Resolution Criteria Update:

    • Episode Drop Dates: Only consider resolution if the episode drop dates are not in Q3 or Q4.

    • Paul Giamatti's Role: Resolve based on Paul Giamatti being an Oscar nominated actor playing a role.

  • Update 2026-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator has not watched Season 7 and is soliciting suggestions from traders on how to resolve the remaining open questions in this market.

  • Update 2026-03-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 'Black Mirror' title card question will resolve NO. The robot question will resolve N/A unless someone objects within a week.

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@traders so we can close this question entirely, any suggestions on how to resolve these? I ended up not watching the season.

@HenriThunberg it’s been a while since I watched the season. But I think the black and mirror one safely resolves as NO. Harder for me to provide guidance on the robot question

@Cogsdoc thanks! Resolving black mirror one to NO and other one to N/A in a week or so if nobody objects before.

@creator can resolve the rating threshold to yes as well now that its closed. Thanks!

@creator can you also resolve the Emmy nomination as yes. Thanks!

@MRME sorry I missed that one, thanks for keeping track :)

bought Ṁ758 NO

@creator please resolve the Emmy entries. 3 nominations but no wins.

reposted

@traders opening this up for two last days of trading before release!

@traders does anyone object if I already resolve episode drop dates not being Q3/Q4 + Paul Giamatti being Oscar nominated actor playing a role?

reposted

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