Standalone App Launch

Resolution: Meta publicly releases a dedicated forecasting application by Dec 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC.

Access: Downloadable via Apple App Store, Google Play Store, or a public web URL. Internal employee betas or closed, invite-only developer phases resolve as NO.

Interface: Must run natively within its own app envelope. Using Instagram or Facebook for account login is permitted, but the core forecasting engine cannot be a sub-menu inside those apps.

Family of Apps Integration

Resolution: Meta embeds native event-contract mechanics directly into Facebook, Instagram, or Threads by Dec 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC.

Execution: Users must view odds and execute contracts directly inside the host app's interface.

Anti-Loophole: Web links, ad placements, or story stickers that redirect or deep-link users out to an external site or a separate app resolve as NO.

Scale: Must be deployed to a public production tier representing at least 1% of the active user base. Restricted internal A/B tests do not count.

The Platform Flop

Resolution: Evaluated on Dec 31, 2027. Resolves as YES if either condition is met:

Cessation: Meta officially shutters, deprecates, or removes the platform from all distribution channels prior to the evaluation date.

Volume: The platform fails to maintain an average of 100,000 Daily Active Users (DAU) from Dec 1 to Dec 30, 2027, as verified by official Meta investor reports or Sensor Tower or Data.ai metrics.