Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the USA controls Venezuela by December 31, 2026. "Control" is defined as the Trump administration's stated objective of running the country until a political transition occurs. Resolution will be determined by whether the US maintains effective administrative and military control over Venezuelan territory and governance, as evidenced by:

• Continued US military presence and operational authority in Venezuela

• US direction of Venezuelan government functions and policy

• US control over Venezuelan oil infrastructure and resource extraction

The market resolves NO if the Venezuelan government reasserts independence from US control or if the US relinquishes control before year's end, despite Trump's initial claims that the US would "run" Venezuela until a transition of power.

Background

On January 3, 2026, President Trump announced the US had captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro following military strikes. The Trump administration is working to establish a pliant interim government in Venezuela following Maduro's capture, prioritizing administrative stability and repairing the country's oil infrastructure. The Venezuelan government remained in place with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez becoming acting president, as ordered by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice. Trump's claims that the US would run Venezuela were contradicted by Rodríguez and later walked back by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.