Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Venezuela (through its government, military, or state-affiliated actors) takes any direct military, cyber, or armed action against U.S. targets, personnel, or interests in response to the January 2026 U.S. strikes. This includes attacks on U.S. military assets, diplomatic facilities, or U.S. citizens abroad. The action must occur within 12 months of January 3, 2026,.

Background

On January 3, 2026, the United States military attacked Venezuela, capturing sitting Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. The attack, codenamed Absolute Resolve, began around 02:00 a.m. local time when explosions were observed. More than 150 United States Armed Forces airplanes were involved in the operation, which bombed infrastructure across northern Venezuela in support of an apprehension force that landed in the capital city of Caracas. According to Venezuelan and Cuban officials, more than 80 people were killed in the attack, including 32 Cuban military and intelligence members. The Constitutional Chamber of Venezuela's Supreme Court ordered Vice President Delcy Rodriguez to serve as acting president following the US's abduction of Maduro.

Considerations

What happens next hinges on the response of Venezuela's government and armed forces. So far, they've avoided direct confrontation with US forces, but deployments on the streets point to efforts to contain unrest. Rodriguez, whose location remains unknown, also said she remained loyal to Maduro. "There is only one president in this country, and his name is Nicolás Maduro," Rodríguez said in an address on state television, surrounded by other Venezuelan military leaders. The Venezuelan government's response remains ambiguous, with the acting president publicly defiant while facing U.S. pressure and threats.