MANIFOLD
Will something happen in Iran this month?
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3%
chance
5

This market resolves YES if any of these things happen:

100+ American boots on the ground

100+ American deaths from the war

Iran agrees to an unconditional surrender

A third country bombs Iran

Iran's government falls

  • Update 2026-03-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 100+ boots on the ground criterion refers to 100+ military members physically on the ground (not in the air).

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bought Ṁ50 YES

@Bandors for 'A third country bombs Iran' this includes bombs dropped via drones, right?

@Hakari sure, presuming the government who sent it takes credit for sending it.

If a Terrorist kills 100 people in america and says it's for Iran it would resolve YES. Throwing this out in advance because uptick in terrorism lately

@Bandors open to debate if anyone disagrees but I think it's fair

Does 100 boots mean 50 people, and does it explicitly refer to the military?

@AAR 100 military members who are on the ground, not the air

@Bandors wouldn't that be 200 boots?

@MattP 💀

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