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MANIFOLD
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
30
Ṁ282Ṁ3.2k
2030
33%
chance

*at least partial control, if they have full control, that counts too, of course

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Of all the natural defensive advantages Crimea has, none of them help against the class of drone warfare that Ukraine is now waging. If anything, Crimea's geography makes it even harder to defend against these sorts of deep strikes. Attacks can come from any direction, logistics are vulnerable and existing resupply routes are breaking down.

Ukraine is scaling the drone tech wall much faster than Russia is, and they now have a real shot at retaking Crimea. The technological change that has occurred on the battlefield in the past 6 months is probably just the start.

@yeeta how do you figure?