Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2025?
Plus
17
Ṁ21202026
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Whether Ukraine has "control" of territory is deferred to credible sources (e.g. Critical Threats, BBC).
"any part" means any single location. If Ukrainian forces make a beachhead via naval landing on the Crimean coast and hold it for a week, this would count. If Ukrainian forces control a farmhouse north of Perekop on the Crimean side of the boundary, this would count.
"at least a week" means continuously holding that single location. If Ukrainian forces hold onto a single location discontinuously (have it one day, then lose it the next), or hold onto different locations for a continuous week, neither of these would count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
31% chance
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
18% chance
Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
56% chance
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
17% chance
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
11% chance
Will Ukraine control Mariupol on Jan 1st 2029?
36% chance
Control over Crimea in 2035
By the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?
8% chance
Will the Ukraine war end with Ukraine controlling nearly all Ukrainian territory INCLUDING Crimea?
8% chance
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?
1% chance