Will the death toll in the current Israel-Palestinian conflict reach 100,000?
55
1kṀ20k2026
45%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Numbers will be based off of the death toll from October 7, 2023 and on.
If this conflict reaches 100,000 fatalities (on both sides, including civilians) this market resolves as YES.
If this conflict ends (I realize "ends" is a tricky resolution critera in this case see below for my definition) before it reaches 100,000 fatalities, this market resolves as NO.
Definition of End:
This will be determined based on an extended/permenent ceasefire in the region. Short term ceasefires for aid and negotiations will not count as an end to the conflict. This is ambiguious (sort of on purpose) because the region never truly feels at peace, so this little wiggle room will mainly be used to include long term or multi year ceasefire.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?
94% chance
Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
2% chance
Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?
13% chance
Will the civilian death rate from Israeli airstrikes be 60% or higher at the conclusion of the current Palestine war?
91% chance
Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?
6% chance