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Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?
1
Ṁ9.5kṀ10
2027
45%
chance

I am genuinely interested by the position that Prediction Markets take on strong theory (and related physics). I can look at the markets, which I would NOT bet on, and get a fairly genuine idea of "mainstream opinion", because when money is on the line people suddenly get a lot more timid about their opinions.

So yes, any mention of PMs about string theory or Beyond Standard Model (BSM) physics by Sabine before Dec 31st 2027, in one of her videos, and this resolves to yes. I don't watch them all, so if there's a passing reference please someone post it in the comments. It has to be specifically a prediction markets - general scientific bets such as the Hawking-Thorne bet don't count. Either a mention or a full video, about eg Academic Prestige Futures Prediction Markets, would both count.

By the way Sabine has mentioned Prediction Markets before, for example on AI issues, so we know she is aware of them.

Sabine or people close to her could bet on this market and then do a video in which she does mention it. Be aware that in this situation I will NOT consider this spoiled. In my opinion, betting with insider information is a good thing, as it informs the public of future events earlier than they would otherwise have known about them.

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Good proposition! Have an amazing day! (Even in an arithmetic way!) 🚀