Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100, both of the following conditions are met:

1. There are no active, operating prediction markets (defined as platforms, electronic or otherwise, where participants trade contracts or place bets on the outcome of future events) anywhere in the world.

2. The historical record of prediction markets is effectively lost or destroyed—meaning no accessible academic papers, historical texts, digital archives, or encyclopedic entries documenting the concept or history of prediction markets exist or are retrievable by humanity.

This market resolves to NO if, as of January 1, 2100, prediction markets still actively exist (even in a modified or restricted form) OR if clear historical records, digital archives, or academic documentation of their past existence remain preserved and accessible.

If the platform hosting this market ceases to exist before 2100 and cannot resolve it, the market will default to the state of affairs at the time of the platform's closure or remain unresolved.

Background

Prediction markets—historically tracing back to political betting in the 19th century, academic experiments like the Iowa Electronic Markets in 1988, and modern decentralized and play-money platforms—have faced varying degrees of regulatory, technological, and cultural challenges.

This market questions the ultimate longevity of the concept. For "extinction" to occur under these criteria, prediction markets must not only cease to operate entirely, but the very memory and documentation of their history must also be erased or lost to time before the turn of the 22nd century.