Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100, prediction markets become extinct. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

"Extinct" is defined as a continuous period of at least 365 days during which there are zero active, publicly accessible online prediction market platforms operating globally.

• Prediction market platform: Any website, decentralized application, or digital network where users can trade contracts/shares representing the probability of future events using fiat currency, cryptocurrency, or play money (e.g., Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold Markets, PredictIt, or their future equivalent successors).

• Active: The platform is functional, actively accepting new trades/bets, and resolving contracts.

Edge cases:

• If global internet infrastructure or human civilization collapses to the point where online platforms cannot run, or if it is impossible to verify the existence of any active prediction market for 365 consecutive days, the market resolves to YES.

• If at least one active, public prediction market platform is operational at any point in the 365 days leading up to January 1, 2100, the market resolves to NO.

Background

While prediction markets have existed in various formats for decades, they experienced explosive growth in the mid-2020s, driven by cryptocurrency integration, key regulatory and legal victories in the United States (such as Kalshi's CFTC challenges), and integration into mainstream financial platforms.

Despite their current popularity and role as information aggregators, their multi-decade survival faces significant structural headwinds. These include persistent regulatory pushback from federal agencies, state-level bans, and intense lobbying from the traditional gaming and casino industries, which view prediction markets as an existential threat to regulated sportsbooks. This market asks whether these challenges, or broader technological and societal shifts, will eventually lead to the complete demise of the industry before the turn of the next century.