Number of murders in New York increase >15% in 2026 compared to 2025
Folloing the metrics of https://compstat.nypdonline.org/
Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if the total number of murders in New York City in 2026 exceeds the 2025 total by more than 15%. Resolution will be determined using official NYPD crime statistics published on CompStat, the official NYPD crime tracking system. The comparison will use full-year totals: if 2025 ends with X murders, YES resolves if 2026 records more than 1.15X murders.
Background
From January 2025 to May 2025, New York City recorded 112 murders, compared to the previous record low of 113 murders in 2014 and 2017. In 2025, murders fell below one per day for the first time since before the pandemic. There were 377 murders in the city in 2024, 14 fewer than in 2023. The city has experienced three consecutive years of declining homicides, driven largely by precision policing focused on gun violence prevention.
Considerations
A >15% increase would represent a significant reversal of the multi-year downward trend. For context, such an increase would require 2026 murders to reach approximately 434+ (based on 2024's 377 total), a level not seen since 2020. This threshold is notably high relative to recent year-over-year fluctuations, which have typically ranged from 3-4% changes.
1,000"This threshold is notably high relative to recent year-over-year fluctuations, which have typically ranged from 3-4% changes."
YTD 2024 to 2025 decrease is -19.8%
It seems 2025 is an extraordinarily safe year. Based on regression toward the mean, we may expect an increase in 2026. We may even have a 2026 with less murders than 2024, and still meet the 2025 to 2026 +15% increase year over year.