[Will Mamdani win?] x [Will the murder rate increase in NYC?]

100Ṁ667

2029

ALL

31%

Mamdani wins + Murder rate increases

67%

Mamdani wins + Murder rate decreases

0.7%

Mamdani loses + Murder rate increases

0.7%

Mamdani loses + Murder rate decreases

Murder rate comparison will be between:

The four years before the next mayoral election

The four years after the next mayoral election

Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The comparison period will be measured from the start of Mamdani's term (January 1, 2026), comparing 2022-2025 vs 2026-2029
- Data may not be aggregated to the exact day, but this is unlikely to affect resolution

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3 Comments

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Nice idea, but you don't specify a data source for resolution. Are you really thinking average murder rate for four years pre/post election to the day? Data may not be aggregated to the day. Why four years on both sides? Its a long time to wait for question resolution.

@thatMikeBishop @DontGoHome I would think that comparing 2022-2025 vs 2026-2029 would make more sense anyway, since Mamdani's term doesn't start until 1/1/2026.

@thatMikeBishop It is a long time, but

I think the loan system is supposed to incentivise long-term betting? Although I'm not sure how it works or if it fully succeeds
Whatever Mamdani does, I imagine it's unlikely to show up in the murder data right away.

@DanielTilkin Measuring from the start of his term would've been better, you're right. And data will presumably not be aggregated to the day. But I think it's unlikely to make a difference to the resolution.