[Will Mamdani win?] x [Will the murder rate increase in NYC?]
11
100Ṁ211
2029
55%
Mamdani wins + Murder rate increases
26%
Mamdani wins + Murder rate decreases
10%
Mamdani loses + Murder rate increases
9%
Mamdani loses + Murder rate decreases

Murder rate comparison will be between:

  • The four years before the next mayoral election

  • The four years after the next mayoral election

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