Will 10% of New York city die in any year from disaster, before 2035?
11
22
Ṁ1.1KṀ210
2035
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Some examples of disasters:
-Nuclear strike
-Pandemic
-AI mishap
-Famine
-Tsunami
-Infrastructure collapse, such as from a solar flare
If a disaster affects the city of New York city in New York, we'll refer to the total deaths attributed during the calendar year. We then calculate that as a percent of the prior population. If it's 10% or more, we resolve Yes. If disasters never kill 10%+ in a year, then we resolve No in 2035-Jan.
If there are multiple disasters then we would include them all, for the given year, and add their percents. We would include tourists, or whoever became part of the reported death toll.
Get Ṁ200 play money
More related questions
Related questions
Will New York City's population be at least as high in 2030 as it was in 2020?
48% chance
Will 50% of the human population die in a 12 month time period before 2050?
14% chance
Will 10% of San Francisco die in any year from disaster, before 2029?
2% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
17% chance
Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?
22% chance
[Metaculus] Will New York City experience a hurricane by 2030?
64% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2040?
18% chance
Will humanity go extinct before 2030?
1% chance
Will there be a dam collapse in the US before the end of 2025 with a fatality rate of 10 or more?
18% chance