Will 10% of New York city die in any year from disaster, before 2035?
11
22
1k
2035
3%
chance

Some examples of disasters:

-Nuclear strike

-Pandemic

-AI mishap

-Famine

-Tsunami

-Infrastructure collapse, such as from a solar flare

If a disaster affects the city of New York city in New York, we'll refer to the total deaths attributed during the calendar year. We then calculate that as a percent of the prior population. If it's 10% or more, we resolve Yes. If disasters never kill 10%+ in a year, then we resolve No in 2035-Jan.

If there are multiple disasters then we would include them all, for the given year, and add their percents. We would include tourists, or whoever became part of the reported death toll.

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