Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Chicago records fewer than 400 homicides in 2026, and NO if it records 400 or more. Resolution will be based on final homicide data released by the Chicago Police Department, available at https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/depts/cpd/supp_info/bao/crime_statistics.html. Homicides are defined as criminal killings and exclude justifiable homicides and involuntary manslaughter.

Background

Chicago recorded 416 homicides in 2025, the fewest since 2014, representing a 29% decrease from 2024. In the first half of 2025, Chicago's homicide rate was 33% lower than it was for the same period in 2024. Chicago has now seen four consecutive years with a drop in homicides, with 2021 recording 805 homicides before declining in 2022 and another 15% decline in 2023.