By the end of Mamdani's term of office New York City violent crime rate will be higher than when he took office.

100Ṁ41

2026

33%

chance

ALL

Now I need to search for the baseline violent crime rate when Mamdani takes office (January 1, 2026) to establish the comparison point.Based on my research, I now have sufficient information to create the market description. Let me compile what I've learned:

Mamdani was elected mayor on November 4, 2025
Mamdani's term as New York City's next mayor begins on New Year's Day (January 1, 2026)
NYC violent crime data shows recent trends with murders and shootings decreased by 4% and 8% respectively since 2023, but are still 18.3% and 16.3% higher than in 2019, while felony assaults increased by 5% in 2024 compared to 2023 and now stand 40.4% above 2019 levels
The NYPD provides regular crime statistics that can be tracked

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if NYC's violent crime rate (as measured by the NYPD's official violent crime index: murder, rape, robbery, and felony assault) at the end of Mamdani's mayoral term is higher than the rate on January 1, 2026, when he takes office. Resolution will be based on official NYPD crime statistics published at https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/crime-statistics/citywide-crime-stats.page and https://compstat.nypdonline.org/. The comparison will use per-capita violent crime rates to account for population changes. If Mamdani's term ends before a full year of data is available, the market resolves based on the most recent complete data available at that time.

Background

Mamdani won the Democratic primary in June 2025 and was elected mayor in the November general election. Overall major crime in New York City has continued to decline in 2024 but remains significantly above the prepandemic lows of 2019, with a notable exception being the rise in violent crime—while murders and shootings have decreased, they are still higher than 2019 levels, and felony assaults have continued to climb.

Considerations

NYC's violent crime trends have diverged since the pandemic. The ongoing rise in felony assaults despite decreasing shootings is a puzzle, as violent crimes typically follow similar trends, meaning policymakers must determine what forces are pushing the trends in divergent directions. This makes predicting overall violent crime rates complex, as different categories may move independently.