Reform UK won five seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be called in one of those seats?
20
1kṀ91962029
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
1%
Before 01/11/2024
1%
Between 01/11/2024 and 30/06/2025
18%
After 30/06/2025 (by-election held)
80%
No by-election held in these seats before the next UK General Election
Market resolves when either of these is true:
A by-election is called in Clacton-on-Sea, Boston and Skegness, South Basildon and East Thurrock, Great Yarmouth, or Ashfield, for whatever reason.
A UK General Election is called.
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Have aligned the market description and criteria to clarify that the date a by-election is called will be used to resolve the market.
Reform might win a fifth seat (there are still a couple of consistencies that haven’t declared). Would that count for this question as well?
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