Reform UK won five seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be called in one of those seats?
21
1kṀ9316
2029
0.9%
Before 01/11/2024
0.9%
Between 01/11/2024 and 30/06/2025
25%
After 30/06/2025 (by-election held)
73%
No by-election held in these seats before the next UK General Election

Market resolves when either of these is true:

  • A by-election is called in Clacton-on-Sea, Boston and Skegness, South Basildon and East Thurrock, Great Yarmouth, or Ashfield, for whatever reason.

  • A UK General Election is called.

Market context
UK
UK politics
Next UK General Election
Reform UK
UK General Election 2024
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Have aligned the market description and criteria to clarify that the date a by-election is called will be used to resolve the market.

Reform might win a fifth seat (there are still a couple of consistencies that haven’t declared). Would that count for this question as well?

If they do, I will update the question/description, yes.

They won the seat of South Basildon and East Thurrock.

Grim news, but thanks. Have updated.

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