Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030?
Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030?
40
1.2kṀ28182031
36%
Waymo
33%
Tesla
19%
7%
BYD
1.4%
Zoox
1.3%
Toyota
1.1%
Apple
Miles driven, regardless of “level of autonomy”; will resolve to the top-3 players based on their relative market share.
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@DavidFWatson same question. China already has self-driving taxi between cities (Shenzhen-Guangzhou)
If level of autonomy doesn't matter, shouldn't GM or Toyota be higher than Tesla? GM and Toyota drive cars drive far more miles per year than Teslas.
@Gigacasting If "level of autonomy" doesn't matter, what does this question have to do with self-driving at all? I should buy GM just because they sell the most generic cars.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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