Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?
13
38
Ṁ418Ṁ270
2030
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I'll define major as largest 10 metro areas. For self-driving I'll use SAE level 3.
https://www.sae.org/binaries/content/gallery/cm/content/news/sae-blog/j3016graphic_2021.png
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030?
58% chance
Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?
22% chance
Will a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one city center by the end of 2040?
40% chance
Will a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040?
74% chance
Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)? [Ṁ1500 subsidy]
30% chance
Will humanoid robots be commonplace in the US, by 2030? ($1k mana subsidy)
41% chance
Will cars still be a dominant form of personal transportation in 2050?
60% chance
Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?
27% chance
Will more people travel between cities by self driving car than by inter city rail before 2037
41% chance