Which company will win the self-driving car race?
17
67
2030
32%
#Tesla
0.2%
Baidu Inc
6%
Ford
9%
General Motors (GM)
1.2%
Mobileye
43%
Waymo
4%
Comma AI
1.1%
Huawei
Which company will be the first to release a self-driving car that has above 5% market share (among all cars on the road)?
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To be clear, this 5% market share should clearly be labeled as a percent of all trips, not a percent of all cars owned. Teslas sitting in driveways, or teslas that don't have the full self driving package, are not really 'competing' for self-driving market share. Right?

bought Ṁ40 Waymo

@DavidFWatson And presumably 5% of trips or miles-driven worldwide, or an estimate thereof?

What if some company sells a self-driving package to the others? How would that be counted?

Tesla had a peak market share of 2.59%. We assume the self-driving feature will increase Tesla market share sufficiently that it achieves 5%?

GM has the largest with something like 17%. Does it mean that 30% of all GM cars need the self-driving feature? Or is it sufficient that GM has 17% market share if only 1% of GM cars have self-driving capabilities?

Does a self-driving Waymo Jaguar count as Waymo or JLR or both?

Waymo and Comma AI do not sell cars, so market share means something different for them. Market share for taxi services maybe?

Mobileye does not sell cars but supplies to car manufacturers. Does their market share among suppliers (e.g. Bosch, Nvidia) or market share of cars it is built into (BMW, Volkswagen, Nissan, whatever)?

Does self-driving include SAE level 3 where a driver must be available on short notice?

answered
General Motors (GM)

@Duncan rip Cruise

0% Waymo

Basically Tesla. Though description needs clarification, ideally “5% of miles driven are driven autonomously by own automaker”

Description could use some more detail about what level of automation/human oversight is enough to count, and also about how market share is counted.
Are we talking about the American market only?
@Duncan Yes, though I'll stick to the spirit of the question. If somehow every other country in the world has 50% self-driving Teslas but the US doesn't have self-driving cars I'll resolve for Tesla.

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