Full self driving cars will be legal with no need for human interaction in any country by the end of 2025?

1kṀ2590

Dec 31

15%

chance

ALL

The driver could be asleep for the entirety of the trip and the car would arrive safely to the destination in such a way that it would be legalized somewhere int he world.

The trip needs to be between any of the territory of a single country, intra city trips do not count.

Self-Driving Vehicles

Cars

Automotive

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2025?

26% chance

Will any state in the USA ban self driving cars by the end of 2026?

9% chance

Will I be able to complete a 10+ hour trip via self-driving car by end of 2025?

7% chance

Will Tesla release a full level 4 autonomy (no human behind the wheel) car / driver by the end of 2025?

7% chance

Will there be self driving taxis in London before the end of 2025?

15% chance

Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?

35% chance

Will a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040?

80% chance

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

83% chance

Will Tesla have driverless ride-hailing in the US by end of year?

51% chance

Will Level 5 self driving cars be available by (YEAR)?

9 Comments

42 Holders

61 Trades

Sort by:

https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI

Isn't this already true in every country where it isn't explicitly forbidden? This seems to be something that's legal by default, no?

@CelebratedWhale Probably should clarify that I want it to be explicitly permitted. I am going to try and improve the description soon.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Uhh, Waymo can already drive between cities in Arizona right now, totally unmanned.

For that matter, they've been authorized to drive across at least 3 counties in the Bay Area. (Although unlike Arizona, they don't do it yet)

@DavidFWatson needs to be allowed in the entirity of a country

@JoaoPedroSantos this is counterintuitive for the somewhere in the world phrasing

@JoaoPedroSantos Taking the phrasing to have that meaning results in this basically being a question about small countries. If Waymo deploys to all of Singapore this would immediately resolve YES, despite there being no real change in technological capability.

bought Ṁ10 YES

International waters

@MartinRandall These are famously not regulated by laws so I don't know we could say any law allows it. Also I clarified in the comments that the trip should be anywhere in a territory of a country