Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?
closes 2030

This resolves based on my own experience of how many cars I see driving around in whatever U.S. city I am living in (or have most recently lived in, on the off chance I'm not living in the U.S.).

I will go outside to the street and wait for a few cars to pass. I will try to look in the window or look at the model of the car to try to figure out if the car is driving itself. Once I feel confident about whether more or less than 20% of cars I see are self-driving, I will resolve this either YES or NO.

Nov 2, 5:45am: Will 20% of cars be self-driving by 2030? → Will at least 20% of cars be self-driving by 2030?

Nov 2, 2:58pm: Will at least 20% of cars be self-driving by 2030? → Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?

In response to a question "Self-driving" means an SAE level 3,4, or 5. The self-driving system has to be engaged though - a car that is capable of SAE level 3 but which is actively being driven by a human won't count.

Sort by:
CarsonGale avatar
Carson Galebought Ṁ10 of YES

The driving consideration IMO is that "cars on the street" <> car ownership by 2030. Even if self-driving cars make up only a fraction of car ownership, there could be a small number of Tesla, Waymo, and Cruise vehicles that are running 24/7 performing taxi services.

We haven't even achieved full taxi ability in SF and we are probably already at 2-5% concentration on the roads. I'm expecting that to grow meaningfully once Waymo / Cruise open up the ability to taxi indiscriminately.

Sjlver avatar
Sjlverbought Ṁ10 of NO

Typical cars last about 8 years. So the 20% newest cars in 2030 would probably be bought some time between 2028 and 2030. Will these be self-driving? Maybe. Will people use the self-driving feature in the city? I'd guess only a fraction of drivers.

There are many unknowns here, but overall I'm leaning toward NO.

Adam avatar

what does "self-driving" mean? Does it mean "driving themselves"? does it mean "capable of legally driving themselves"? does it mean "capable of driving themselves"? does "driving themselves" mean level 5, 4, 3 on the SAE scale?

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey

@Adam Yep, in terms of the SAE scale, it would mean level 3,4, or 5. There either has to be no driver in the driver's seat, or it has to be reasonable to think that the person in the driver's seat is not driving the car.

Boklam avatar

This might depend a lot on which city you are living in. (There are more Teslas in San Jose than Iowa City.) Where do you live now? Where have you lived before? Where do you have ties? Where might you want to live in the future?

These are personal questions so feel free to share or not.

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey

@Boklam I grew up in the SF Bay area, went to college in LA area. I am currently in Grad School in Urbana, Illinois. I study CS, so I consider it more likely than not that I will be living in some kind of tech hub in 7 years.

ManifoldDream avatar

Will at least 20% of cars be self-driving by 2030?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Related markets

Will at least half of new cars sold in 2038 in the US be fully autonomous?37%
Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?51%
Will I drive a car in 2030?64%
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030?61%
Will I drive a car in 2040?30%
Will I drive a car in 2050?23%
Will a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040?78%
Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?46%
Will I be able to complete a 10+ hour trip via self-driving car by end of 2024?32%
Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030?
Will more people travel between cities by self driving car than by inter city rail before 203754%
Will most miles in the US be driven by hail-on-demand robotaxis in 2030?19%
Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?47%
Will I be able to order a self-driving taxi without a steering wheel by end of 2023?13%
Will a city ban manually driven cars on at least one public road/lane by 2030?25%
Will I be able to order a self-driving taxi without a steering wheel by end of 2024?53%
Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?34%
Will 10% of US electric vehicles have Vehicle-to-Grid connectivity on 2032-02-27?42%
Will the trucking industry be automated by end of 2030?47%
Will electric and autonomous transportation be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?59%