Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030?
43
1.2kṀ3085
2031
35%
BYD
33%
Tesla
15%
Waymo
14%
Other
1.1%
Zoox

Miles driven, regardless of “level of autonomy”; will resolve to the top-3 players based on their relative market share.

Technology
Self-Driving Vehicles
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Tesla have more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?
14% chance
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
55% chance
Which company will facilitate the greatest number of autonomous vehicle rides in 2030?
Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?
18% chance
Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?
90% chance
When will a large majority of rideshare be done by self-driving cars?
Which company will win the self-driving car race?
Will the Full Self Driving revolution be bigger then the Smartphone revolution by at least one order of magnitude?
31% chance
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
83% chance
Will more than 50% of cars sold in 2030 in the US have self driving capabilities (SAE level 3)?
45% chance
Sort by:

BYD was already doing 100k rides per day in Jul 2024, while Waymo is doing 29k rides per day in Mar 2025. The US market is 1/4 the size of China so unless Waymo expands internationally, this seems like it will go around 80% to BYD.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-11/alphabet-s-waymo-to-offer-self-driving-rides-in-silicon-valley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W9Y44m3lyI

@Pepe that is if they won't go bankrupt

@Berg

Is this supposed to be US only?

@DavidFWatson same question. China already has self-driving taxi between cities (Shenzhen-Guangzhou)

If level of autonomy doesn't matter, shouldn't GM or Toyota be higher than Tesla? GM and Toyota drive cars drive far more miles per year than Teslas.

@Gigacasting If "level of autonomy" doesn't matter, what does this question have to do with self-driving at all? I should buy GM just because they sell the most generic cars.

Yes the title absolutely should be changed. Currently very misleading

14,000 cabs in New York (1 per 1000 people)

92% of households own cars and not into

People are also trading

Will Tesla have more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?
14% chance
Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?
-4% 1d55% chance
Which company will facilitate the greatest number of autonomous vehicle rides in 2030?
Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?
18% chance
Will at least 20% of cars I see be self-driving by 2030?
90% chance
When will a large majority of rideshare be done by self-driving cars?
Which company will win the self-driving car race?
Will the Full Self Driving revolution be bigger then the Smartphone revolution by at least one order of magnitude?
31% chance
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
83% chance
Will more than 50% of cars sold in 2030 in the US have self driving capabilities (SAE level 3)?
45% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy